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  • P-ISSN 2586-2995
  • E-ISSN 2586-4130
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KDI Journal of Economic Policy. Vol. 48, No. 2, May 2026, pp. 1-35

https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2026.48.2.1

× KDI Open Access is a program of fully open access journals to facilitate the widest possible dissemination of high-quality research. All research articles published in KDI JEP are immediately, permanently and freely available online for everyone to read, download and share in terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The Effects of Increased Korea Treasury Bond Issuance on the Yield Curve

MEEROO KIM; JONG SOO HONG

Author & Article History

Manuscript received 27 May 2025; revision received 27 May 2025; accepted 18 December 2025.

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the sharp increase in Korea Treasury Bond (KTB) issuance following the COVID-19 crisis and analyzes the effects of bond buybacks as a policy countermeasure. Using a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with macroeconomic factors, we estimate the effects of changes in the bond supply on the yield curve. Empirical results show that a KRW 1 trillion increase in KTB issuance raises yields by approximately 2.5 to 2.9 basis points, with stronger effects observed in the post-COVID period and in medium- to long-term maturities with weaker demand. Conversely, emergency buybacks reduce yields by about 1.9 to 2.1 basis points, with similar maturity-dependent dynamics. These findings highlight the importance of demand conditions in amplifying the interest rate effects of government bond supply shocks.

Keywords

Government bond issuance, Treasury buyback, Yield curve, Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, COVID-19

JEL Code

A1, A2, A3

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